(Updated: 02/04/2000)

N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from Metastock Program

Last week we had expected STI to trade within the range of 2200-2080. Indeed we were quite right, as STI was traded within the range of 2234-2098. However, while we were expecting STI to come down first before rebounding up. The actual movement was the opposite. SIT make a huge surge of 60 points last Monday but was succumb to strong selling pressure on Thursday and lost a big 70 points. This had resulted a loss of -13.6 points in STI over the week. As for Sesdaq, the performance was slightly out of our expectation. We said that, "the index will stay in the range between 133 to 123.4 towards the end of the week." Although Sesdaq did trade within a range, it was on the higher side of our expectation. It was trading within a range of 139-130 and closed at 131.6, near its low for the week. With a rather volatile week past by, what can we expect for the coming week? What direction will STI and Sesdaq head to? Can Nasdaq held its down sliding after Friday's up-move? These are the questions we are looking at now.

There are two important economic data coming out from USA next week. Namely, Tuesday's February leading economic indicators and Friday's March employment report. These will give a clue as to how rapid the growth of US economy in March. With the announcement of 1st quarter corporate result starting on 10th April, we can expect some volatility setting in by end next week or the week after. These will indirectly affect our market and create the unnecessary volatile movement. With Nasdaq lossing a huge 10% last week before Friday's rebound, it showed that the correction may not be over yet. As such, any big move by US market will have great impact to us. After all, we do not have much news and economic data on domestic front over the next weeks to have a great impact for our stock market. The fact that we had a huge losses on STI and Sesdaq last Thursday, had us wonder if we had found our medium term bottom. Expect STI to trade higher in the early part of the week, but will succumb to selling pressure by mid to end next week. A move up to 2150 is quite likely, with a possible of touching 2180 if momentum can sustain. However, it will eventually turn down and head towards 2100 and below by end of the week. As for Sesdaq, an attempt towards 133-135 is quite possible, but should eventually drop towards 125 and possible lower by end of the week. Our electronic and manufacturing sectors are now looking ripe for some form of correction in the coming weeks.

The following are resistance and support to watch for Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei next week:

Any break-out on these levels, will certainly affect our STI movement.

We have finally decided to put 2583 as the top of wave 5 of wave (5), even thought theoretically we should wait until STI close below 1970. This premature labeling may lead us into a wrong picture for the long term, if STI eventually stay above 1970 and do not break below it. But nevertheless, the early we make our stand, the easier it is for our investment decision. At current stage, it looks as if that we may have completed the wave B at 2234.65, for it represent 0.318 pull back for wave A (although we would prefer wave B to end at 2300, but since it has moved to our expected range of 2200-2300, we may consider the wave completed). If this is correct, then we can expect STI to head for 1965 as first target and may eventually drop to 1800 soon.

Events To Watch For The Coming Weeks/Month .

1. Tuesday's US February economic leading indicators and Friday's March employment data.
2. The political development in Indonesia.
3. The movement of US stock market and T-bond.
4. The movement of Dollar vs Yen.
5. The stability of Regional and Singapore currencies
6. Regional stock markets movement.
7. Singapore 3 months Inter-bank rate.