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(Updated 01/08/99)

N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from Metastock Program

Last week, we said "We do not rule out a possible test of 1940 before a bottom is formed, we believe STI has either seen the short term bottom or is very near to it."
We also said that "If wave c equal to 1.682 of wave a, then the target for wave c should be 1935. As such, we may be very close to a short term bottom now." STI traded to a low of 1936 and make a strong rebound last Monday. It then broke through' 2030 of our resistance and was closed at 2145.8 last Friday. Our prediction of STI bottom was just 1 point different than the actual index! The week before last we had also made a close call on Sesdeq's bottom.  We said that Sesdeq would probably find its bottom in the range of 130-135. On Monday before last, Sesdeq did a low of 126 before back up and closed at 131, which was a bottom that had not been threaten since then. We were very pleased with the above two predictions, of which both were so close to the actual bottom of the indices. Having said that, we do believe one day our prediction may be wrong, but like what we always say, we will continue to work hard and make positive contribution to you and hope that you will continue supporting our site.

So what can we expect next week? Will STI continue its robust up-move towards National day? We believe a drop of 135 points in Dow Jones last Friday may have some negative impact on the STI's Monday opening. However, Dow Jones will probably find its short term bottom somewhere near 10500 and make a rebound. It will probably trade in the range of 10500-11000 for the month of August until the August, 24 FOMC meeting. As such for the month of August, it may not provide much pressure to our market. So for STI index, it may open weak but should trade higher toward 2200 by the end of the week. The month of August should be a month of rally for Singapore stock market, and expect STI to test a new high by the end of the month. As for Sesdeq, it is now reaching a critical juncture. A break of 160 will be very positive for the index. However, if it want to challenge the new high above 206 for this year, it needs to make an impulsive up-move from here towards 183 within the coming two weeks, so as to make the attempt looks possible. As such, the movement of Sesdeq for the coming two weeks will be very crucial for the retail investors. Most of our Asia region stock markets are now entering into the wave (5) of wave ((1)). It seems to me that both Nikkei and STI indices are now leading the regional indices in this up-move, and will probably completing the wave early than the others.

Technically, STI has completed its wave (4) and is now entering into wave (5). Wave (5) is the most unpredictable wave in the entire up-move. It requires strong gut feeling, patience and wisdom to win the battle. The target for this wave is some how academic, for it could reach a new high but can also be a wave (5) failure. The only practical way is to watch its development carefully and do not over commit in the trades. So, good luck and may the force be with you in your investment decision!

It seems that the preferred count in our  "Long Term Perspective" site remains to be the most likely case that is going to happen.

Support  2110, 2080, 2030, 200, 1936, 1820-1850, 1800, 1700
Resistance 2175, 2200, 2214, 2250, 2300, 2500

Events To Watch For The Coming Weeks/Month

  1. The conflict between China and Taiwan.
  2. The movement of US stock market and T-bond.
  3. The development of Indonesia election.
  4. The release of Corporate results.
  5. The movement of Dollar vs Yen.
  6. The stability of Regional and Singapore currencies (especially Indonesia Ruppiah)
  7. >Regional stock markets movement.
  8. Singapore 3 months Inter-bank rate.
    9.