 (Updated 11/4/99)  N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from Metastock Program Again, we had a very impressive performance in STI over last week. In our last week preview, we said that, "Properties sector looks a bit over stretch right now and may slow down in its upmove next week. This will give the opportunity for the finance sector to lead the way, but then by the end of the week, the Sesdaq and Manufacturing sectors may prove to be the star gainers." The market did according to our expectation and we were lucky again, to see the banking sector leading the market and eventually been taken over by Sesdaq and Manufacturing sectors towards the end of the week, with Sesdaq being the top percentage gainer. Last week was certainly remarkable, STI had continued upmove day after day without any negative closing on the week. And in actual fact it had moved up over the past 8 trading days without a single retracement, isn't it amazing? If we looked back to the past history, ever since the low of 800.27 in September'98, there was only one occasion when STI had a continue upmoved of 5 days without interruption, so this time market had continued up for a record 8 trading days, is it telling us that a new bull market has finally arrived? For those readers who had been following me closely since the birth of this web site on 18th December 1998, you would probably know that I was very bullish at that time. If you had read my long term perspective from that day onwards, you would have noticed that ever since the birth of the web site, I had been calling for STI to reach 1,700 this year, though some people had laugh at me during that time when I called for the index to reach 1,700 in 1999. My view that STI will reach 1,700 has not been changed from that day until now. But then, since STI is now only 35 points below our target, you may wonder what is next? Expect market to face strong profit taking over the whole of next week. Then, your next question may be, will this profit taking down move turn out to be a new bear trend? Sad to say, at this juncture there is no clear technical sign to say that the bull is over. But then, I have not changed my long term perspective view either. I still hold my view that we have a 55% chance of seeing STI move down from the 1,700 region as compare to 40% chance of seeing it move up (for detail please refer to my "long term perspective" sites). So, can Friday's high of 1678 turn out to be the intermediate top? Well, my guess is we will probably see a pull back correction at any time now but 1678 may not be the Intermediate high. A pull back now should be supported at 1,540-1,580 range, before a next upmove towards 1,728 to form an intermediate top. However, if the correction drop through 1,480 we may safely assume the bull run is over. It looks to me that we have now completed wave (B) of ((B)) and is now going through wave (C) of ((B)), which is expected to be in a form of 12345. We may have gone through wave 1,2 and 3 of wave (C), OR is now in the process of completing wave 3. Last week's strong surge could be either part of wave 3 or an extended wave 5 of wave (C), we need to see the coming week's performance to draw our conclusion. However, 1,652 is the 50% retracement from STI all time high of 2,503 to 800.27 low, and that 1,728 is the 61.8% retracement from previous Intermediate high of 2278 to 800.27 low. My view is that for the moment, the chance of breaking above 1,728 looks remote unless our alternate count turn out to be the preferred count, which at this juncture is still too premature to say so. Look for a break of 1,480 to confirm a down trend.
Events To Watch For The Coming Weeks/Months
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