 (Updated 28/2/99)  N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from Metastock Program In last week's commentary, we said "Although January's trade figure that announce on Saturday may have some negative impact to the market, I think the reaction will be rather minimal. Expect market to open on a slight weakness this Monday, but then bargain hunting will emerge." The market did open with a dip of -8 points and subsequently been bought up the same day. We also said that "Bargain hunting will emerge and push the STI up towards the later part of the week. STI should trade in a range of 1338-1425, with more upside bias. However, any potential rally should be capped at 1425". STI did continue to surge until Friday and make an intra-day high of 1428, about 3 points above our prediction, which again was remarkably accurate. So, what will happen this week? This week will be facing with a lot of noises and uncertainties in the market and that STI is at the cross road right now. If STI can manage to break above 1485, it will be very bullish and most likely than not, it will continue to surge to new high with a high chance of reaching 1,700. On the other hand, if STI plunge below 1330, the current technical rebound will be ended, and that STI will most likely heading towards 1,200-1,150 range. I guess the direction will be very much depend on Dow Jones and T-Bond performance and the corporate results that are going to announce this week. It is certainly very difficult to provide an accurate prediction for the coming week and that under such situation, investors are advised to remain sideline for the timebeing. However, if force to make a commitment, I would say that next Monday will probably start with a weak note, for some profit taking may emerge after the Budget announcement. Towards the middle to end next week, the movement will depend on Dow Jones and interest rate movement but will probably have higher chance of drifting lower than up, and that any upmove will be capped at 1,450 level. It looks to me that we have just completed wave (A) of ((B)) and is now going through wave (B) of ((B)), which is expected to be in a form of abc. We are still waiting for some clues to identify whether 1280 low is wave a or c. Once we can determine the wave, we will have more confidence to predict the next move. Till than, I guess the best way is to sit tight and watch the market developed. Alternate count, suggest that we have just completed Wave 5 of Wave (1). A completion of Wave (1) will follow a corrective Wave (2) which will bring the index down towards 1,150 and possible 1,030.
Events To Watch For The Coming Weeks/Months
|