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N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from
NextView Program
Last week we said that, "Last week was rather interesting.
Starting from the result announcement of Alcoa on Monday and subsequently
Intel on Thursday and JP Morgan on Friday, all were facing a sell off after
the announcement despite good results. Will this turn up to be the theme for
this corporate announcement period. It certainly looks like it for the time
being. The coming week and the week after will have big number of corporate
announcing their results. If the past does reflect the future, we will be
facing a big sell down in the stock market! However, if you have taken my
advise seriously last week after my self imposed resting for three months on
this column writing, you are certainly in good shape now! Best still if you
are my customer and have attended my seminar last Saturday, you would have
turned short last week and is now sitting on with good profit! There are not
many important economic data coming up next week, as such the big surprise
would not be from the economic data. However, there are plenty of big and
important corporate results to be announced next week. Starting on Monday's
Citi Group. Follow by corporations like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, IBM,
AMD, Google, and GE. It certainly has the power to rock the indexes. And
judging from past week performance, it is certainly favoring the downside if
everything remain unchanged! For Dow Jones Industrial and S&P, watch out for
the support at 10550 and 1120 respectively, a break will confirm the change
of trend and is likely to take the indexes much lower than current level."
Well, DJIA dropped like a falling knife last week as per our prediction. The
support at 10550 gave way without a single sight of fighting! This is
certainly very bearish to the market. We also said that, "s for Hang Seng Index it has already broken the 22000 level and led the global
market down last week. It would be interesting to see how the support at
21200 play out. An eventual break on 21200 will have strong bearish
implication to Hong Kong market. As for STI, we would expect a gap down on
Monday and test the support at 2850 next week." Both HSI and STI had broken
the major support at 21200 and 2850 without any fighting, which again
implying that there are more to go on the downside.
To all my customers and fellow
supporters who had followed my advise two weeks ago on my first write out on
this year weekly commentary column, I believe all of you are in very good
shape by now. Indeed this is just the beginning, I am sure there are more
downside room to go, so stay short and make good money! This week will be
very volatile for the stock market. For the Bulls will attempt to fight back
and try to gain back some ground, before they realize that the game is over
and it is time for the Bears to perform in the stage. There are 12 members
of DJIA component stocks and 130 companies in the S&P 500 to announce their
result this week, such as Du Pont, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Microsoft,
Apple, Yahoo and Amazon. Judging from past two weeks reaction (sell on
announcement of results), the market is certainly favoring the downside. We
also have a serious of important economic data in the pipeline, starting
from Monday's Existing home sales, Tuesday's Case-Shiller home prices and
Consumer confidence, Wednesday New-home sales and FOMC meeting announcement,
Thursday's Jobless claim and Friday's GDP and Employment cost index. All
these could move the market one way or another. In addition, there are a few
central banks making their Interest Rate decision next week, plus Obarma's
state of the union address and the possibility that Fed Chairman Bernanke
won't get his confirmation vote, all of these events will add on more
uncertainty to the market. Technically, all global indexes had make a major
down turn last week, with many indexes broke their respective up trendline
and important supports. To me this is a change of direction and is likely to
take months before any possible of returning back to the bull market again.
Although there are market view that the current sell down may develop into a
depression type of Bear market, where DJIA heading to much lower that Mar'09
level. Thought it is not completely impossible, I would rather take thing
one at the time and treat the current sell down as a correction that may
last for at least a few months. I will only reassess the potential of
depression type of Bear market in a few months time. Expect next week to be
very volatile, the market could be experience some rebound on Monday and
Tuesday, but will soon give way to the sell down again by end of the week.
For DJIA any rebound will be capped below 10500 and will eventually break
the 10000 level in one to two weeks time. As for STI, rebound may come early
next week and would not be lasting. Any rebound will be capped below 2850. As
such, for Intermediate investors, you
may want to wait for some rebound before initiating your shorts. As for short term traders,
perhaps it would be better to switch into trading shorts for the coming
weeks, as long side may be more difficult and subject to possible trap on
your positions.
Dow Jones Hang Seng
Nikkei
Resistance 10300
21200 10900
Support 10000 20200
10500
As for STI the resistances and supports
are as follow:
Resistance: 2850, 2883, 2900, 2932, 2945, 2950
Support: 2790,
2730, 2680, 2600
Events To watch For The
Coming Week:
- The movement in Dow Jones
Industry and NASDAQ..
- The
movement in currencies, bond, oil and commodities price.
-
The corporate result announcements, such as Du Pont, Boeing,
Caterpillar, Chevron, Microsoft, Apple, Yahoo and Amazon.
-
The economic data include Monday's Existing home sales, Tuesday's Case-Shiller
home prices and Consumer confidence, Wednesday New-home sales and FOMC
meeting announcement, Thursday's Jobless claim and Friday's GDP and
Employment cost index.
The following are two
possible wave counts on STI as at to-date:
- Preferred Count (60% probability)-- bullish count
My preferred count calling for a
top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two year
sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 3906. We are now in the
development of wave ((4)), of which we expect it to be a big triangle
formation that take about one to two years to complete. The recent sell
down is the first leg of wave ((4)), which will take a form of a-b-c and
reaches the potential target of 2770, as the wave (a) of ((4)). The
index will then continue to develop the (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) triangle
formation.
- Alternate Count (40% probability)--
bearish count
My alternate count calling
for a top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two
year sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 2666 in May 2006. The index had
then entered into wave ((5)) that ended on 3906 in October'07. We are
now in the downtrend bear market, which will last for a few years!
Although this count remains as the least chance as compare to my
preferred count. If the index breaks below 2776 convincingly on very
high volume, the odd on bear market will significantly increase.
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