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N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from
NextView Program
Last week we said that, "Last week was the first week
positive closing after a 7 consecutive negative weekly closing in Dow Jones
Industrial. This may or may not be a bottom before another bull run, but its
magnitude had certainly convinced us that at least a technical rebound is on
the card. At this junction, we believe Dow is either completed its short
term bottom and is now heading towards the next target at 12000 OR is
completing a very short term rebound which may then follow another big sell
off to below 10800 before calling a bottom. If first scenario is correct,
than any pull back correction on Dow Jones in the near term should not drop
below 11200. On the other hand if Dow pull back and drop below 11200, then a
new low may be seen before a near term bottom is formed. Expect global
market and Dow Jones to continue their positive run on Monday, but come
Tuesday some forms of correction may kick in. The severity of the correction
will then help us to identify the correct short term wave count as per the
above explanation. Perhaps the string of important corporate results will
help us in our near term wave counts." Well, true enough Dow did continue to
rally last Monday and started its correction on Wednesday onwards. The
correction was halted on Friday at 11341 above the 11200 that we had stated
above. In our last week commentary we also said that, "As for STI, I expect
some rally early next week to challenge the 2900 level, only a strong break
above this level will lead the index to test the 3050 level. Of course, it
will have to mirror closely with the Dow and by then we could expect Dow to
test the 11670 level." STI did rally and break the 2900 last week and only
came down and closed at 2922 (above 2900 support level) last Friday. So,
what had the Dow and STI told us? Is the technical rebound is still on the
card OR another big sell off is about to start?
Last week was certainly quite
positive for the stock market, for it finally managed to have a positive
close after a 7 weeks consecutive negative closed in Dow Jones Industrial.
Although last Friday trading and closing was not so convincing and that last
week rebound had in fact satisfy the minimum rebound target for the Dow, we
believe the rebound may have not over yet! Will last Friday's low turn out
to be another low that will follow by another leg up? I think the chances
are pretty high. Last Saturday, the Congress had finally approved the bill
to assist home loan mortgagees and Fannie and Freddy, which should be
a boost to the market. With most of the banks and financial institutions had
reported their earning last week, the most volatile stocks had been taken
out from the equation, which mean there may not have much more bad earning
news to be announced next week. However, there are still heavy corporate
earning to be announced, follow by the important job data on Friday, which
will bring the volatility to the market. As a whole I would expect Dow would
likely to go up. The first sign will come if Dow Jones Industrial climbs
above 11500 by early next week. On the other hand, if Dow Jones Industrial
breaks below 11200 early next week, than a big sell off will be followed
suit. So, do stay tune and be alert, even thought the investment environment
is now getting better. As for STI, I expect some rally early
next week to challenge the 3000 level again, only a strong break above this level
will lead the index to test the eventual target of 3200 level. However, if
STI could not rally in early next week and begin to turn down and breaks
below 2900 than more troubles may come. If you are a short term investor,
you may have follow my advise to turn long two weeks ago, which is still
fine, for the market is likely to continue going up. As for medium term investors, you
may start buying early next week in anticipation that STI will eventually
hit the target of 3200 by mid August. However, you may want to exercise a
tight stop loss policy that if STI drops below 2850 than cut loss and get
out all positions.
The following are the support and
resistance to watch for Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei next week.
Dow Jones Hang Seng
Nikkei
Resistance 11700
23330 13550
Support 11200
22000 13000
As for STI the resistances and supports
are as follow:
Resistance: 2947, 3000, 3030, 3080, 3100
Support:
2900, 2850, 2820, 2780, 2745, 2700
Events To watch For The
Coming Week:
- The movement in Dow Jones
Industry and NASDAQ..
- The movement in
currencies, oil and
commodities price plus tension from Iran and Israel.
- The
economic data, Tuesday Consumer Confidence, Thursday GDP and Chicago
PMI, Friday Non-farm payroll.
-
The continue of major report earnings. Monday Verizon Communications,
Tuesday General Motors, Wednesday Walt Disney, Thursday Exxon Mobil and
Friday Chevron.
The following are two
possible wave counts on STI as at to-date:
- Preferred Count (60% probability)-- bullish count
My preferred count calling for a
top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two year
sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 3906. We are now in the
development of wave ((4)), of which we expect it to be a big triangle
formation that take about one to two years to complete. The recent sell
down is the first leg of wave ((4)), which will take a form of a-b-c and
reaches the potential target of 2770, as the wave (a) of ((4)). The
index will then continue to develop the (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) triangle
formation.
- Alternate Count (40% probability)--
bearish count
My alternate count calling
for a top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two
year sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 2666 in May 2006. The index had
then entered into wave ((5)) that ended on 3906 in October'07. We are
now in the downtrend bear market, which will last for a few years!
Although this count remains as the least chance as compare to my
preferred count. If the index breaks below 2776 convincingly on very
high volume, the odd on bear market will significantly increase.
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