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N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from
NextView Program
Last week we said that, "The closing of Dow Jones Industrial
index at 12745 was just above its uptrend line support at 12730! So, the
index is now right at the make or break situation. Last week, although Dow
did break above 13000, but was more or less halted by its 200 days moving
average and make a reverse. In fact some of the global indexes had also make
a reverse somewhere near their respective 200 days moving average. These
could have some long term implication and may indicate that the current run
up is near to over. Next week may be very critical to the market mid term
direction and could test the old wisdom of " Sell in May and go away" on
whether is workable this year. There are a few economic data to be released
next week, and these data could be the pivot for deciding the market near
term direction. Especially the CPI data that will be released on Wednesday,
which could give the market an early clue on the impact by oil price and
commodities surge on the inflation. Expect Dow Jones to try a rebound in
early part of the week. Watch out for the 12600 support level, if by mid to
end of the week the index breaks below this level, than sorry folks we are
in for a down trend ride again!" Well, Dow Jones did make a rebound early
last week and continued to move up without looking back. This situation was
supposed to be good news to the Bulls but was it? We also said that, "As for STI, we could expect it to open on
the negative territory on Monday, how much it will drop and how bad is its
closing, will give us a clue as to whether there is a rebound or not.
However, giving what had happened in Dow Jones last week, the best hope for
STI is probably to stay within the trading range of 3100- 3200 next week."
Again, STI did hold at the major support last Monday and continued to climb
up slowly over the week, without any retest of the support at 3140 level
again. So, does it mean the market is now getting better and that the Bull
shall continue to charge further?
Although for the week, Dow
Industrials rose 1.9%, S&P 500 rose 2.7% and NASDAQ 3.4%, the closing of Dow Jones Industrial
index last Friday at 12986 (-5.8 pts) merely put Dow Jones near to the top
of the trading range. The Dow Jones Industrial remains trap below its 200
days moving average and that next week will be extreme crucial for the
Bulls. For if the up trend going to continue, the Bulls must charge up by
next week and push Dow Jones Industrial way above 13000 on good volume to
state their authority. Failing which, a short term top may be formed. With
more and more investors thinking that the Dow will continue to surge up, I
have no choice but to turn cautious. The fact that Dow was unable to push
above 13000 on good volume over the past two weeks, has make me very
uncomfortable. If Dow Jones Industrial continues to trade below 13000 next
week, the odd will shift towards the Bears and that a big degree correction
may be imminent! For Dow Jones Industrial continue to monitor the resistance
at 13130 and support at 12715. A break on either side will have long
implication for the short to medium term market trend. Perhaps the PPI to be
released next Thursday will give us the clue. As for STI, we could expect a
slight positive opening on Tuesday, but do not expect any break out until
the USA market make the move. The crucial resistance for STI is 3270 and the
support is at 3140. Again, a break on either side will provide clue for the
near term market direction. So stay tune and
remain cautious. For short term investors, my advise is to stay sideline
while waiting for break out on either side. As for medium term
investors you may want to take some profit and lower down your exposure, then reassess your new
investment strategy. The following are the support and
resistance to watch for Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei next week.
Dow Jones Hang Seng
Nikkei
Resistance 13130
26380 14670
Support 12715
24920 13640
As for STI the resistances and supports
are as follow:
Resistance: 3250, 3270, 3300, 3350
Support:
3200, 3182, 3147, 3050, 3020, 2930
Events To watch For The
Coming Week:
- The movement in Dow Jones
Industry and NASDAQ..
- The movement in
currencies, oil and
commodities price.
- The
economic data, Thursday's PPI and Friday's Existing Home sales and
consumer- sentiment survey.
-
The remaining corporate earning reports and Wednesday's minutes from the
Fed's last meeting.
The following are two
possible wave counts on STI as at to-date:
- Preferred Count (60% probability)-- bullish count
My preferred count calling for a
top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two year
sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 3906. We are now in the
development of wave ((4)), of which we expect it to be a big triangle
formation that take about one to two years to complete. The recent sell
down is the first leg of wave ((4)), which will take a form of a-b-c and
reaches the potential target of 2770, as the wave (a) of ((4)). The
index will then continue to develop the (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) triangle
formation.
- Alternate Count (40% probability)--
bearish count
My alternate count calling
for a top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two
year sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 2666 in May 2006. The index had
then entered into wave ((5)) that ended on 3906 in October'07. We are
now in the downtrend bear market, which will last for a few years!
Although this count remains as the least chance as compare to my
preferred count. If the index breaks below 2776 convincingly on very
high volume, the odd on bear market will significantly increase.
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