 |
N.B. Above Chart is abstracted from
NextView Program
Last week we said that, "Next Monday will be a holiday in USA
market, hence we believe market will be relatively calm. However, come
Tuesday onwards there will be a string of corporate earning coming into the
pipeline. Important earning from tech stocks will play a major role next
week. For example Tuesday's earning report from Apple, Texas Instruments,
Wednesday's Motorola and eBay, Thursday's Microsoft Corp and Sun
Microsystems. With no major economic data next week, these corporate results
will likely to move the market. Plus the fact that most of the major indices
are now very oversold and near their important support, and that we are only
one week before the Fed meeting, we believe market is ripe for a strong
rebound. Whether this will eventually be the bottom for many months to come
has yet to be confirmed, however we believe at least a meaningful rebound
should be coming soon. Technically, although most of the indices are now
turning bearish, they are not too far from their respective strong support
levels, which usually will have at least a good rebound from those levels."
Although we did not expect a big sold down on last Monday and Tuesday. The
rebound after Fed cut rate of 0.75% did coincide with our expectation of
technical rebound. So, if you had purchased shares last Monday and Tuesday,
you had probably sitting on good profit now. We also said that, "As for STI,
after broken the support at 3300 level last week, it had plunged to a low of
3008 on Thursday, this level is indeed very near to the major support around
2930- 2960 level. The target may be considered filled at this stage. We
expect STI will be relatively calm on Monday and will start to rebound after
USA market opens on Tuesday. Although we have no confirmation on the exact
wave development at this stage, we believe it is time for investors to buy
stocks. The risk/ reward ratio is now favoring your investment." Here again,
we may have missed the big sell off last Monday and pushed the index into
next level of support at 2776. If you did purchase on Monday or Tuesday, you
would be sitting on good profit now. So, what could we expect next week? Is
the sell off finally over?
We had finally witnessed a final big
flush on global indices and a strong rebound aftermath last week. In fact
the rebound was so strong that it lasted three days! It is still too
premature to say that the bottom had formed. However, we could safely say
that the recent bottom may at least last for a few weeks from now. Next week
will have a series of economic data, corporate earning and Fed meeting in
the pipeline. Again, we could expect the market continues to be volatile. We
expect the New-home sales data to be released on Monday will be weak and
that will force the market to continue selling down, which at the same time
forcing Fed to cut rate further after the meeting. These will put additional
fuels to the market and push the indices higher by end of the week. The
rally will then continue till mid February before another big sell off
emerge. Technically, most of the global indices are very oversold and a
counter trend rally or sideways consolidation look likely for the coming
week.
As such, we believe next week could be the first positive week for the year
2008 in most global indices! As for STI,
it had rebound on trend support at 2776 (as per the weekly chart above),
which indicated that a few weeks of rally should be on its way. Whether the
2776 will eventually be the low for the year is still argumentative, however
we could expect a few weeks of rally from here, even though volatility will
continue. Expect some profit taking to set in on Monday and Tuesday before
another rally emerge and carry till end of the week. Technically we still
favor a rally to continue for a few weeks till STI reaches 3300 level. If
you are a medium term investor and had followed my last week advise to
purchase shares, you should continue to hold on your position. If you are a
short term trader and had followed my advise to purchase last Monday/
Tuesday, you should take profit on Monday and wait for another entry level
that may appear on Wednesday. As for STI, the first
resistance will be at 3200 follow by 3300. Support are at 3008 follow by
2930.
The following are the support and
resistance to watch for Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei next week.
Dow Jones Hang Seng
Nikkei
Resistance 12500
25850 14000
Support 12000
23500 13365
As for STI the resistances and supports
are as follow:
Resistance: 3200, 3250, 3300, 3380,
3400, 3462, 3550
Support:
3150, 3050, 3008, 2960, 2930
Events To watch For The
Coming Week:
- The movement in Dow Jones
Industry and NASDAQ..
- The movement in
currencies, oil and
commodities price.
- The
economics data, such as Monday's New-home sales, Tuesday's Consumer
confidence, Thursday's Consumer spending and Chicago PMI, Friday's
Non-farm payrolls.
-
Important earning reports from technology sector. And Fed meeting plus
the subsequent action on Wednesday.
The following are two
possible wave counts on STI as at to-date:
- Preferred Count (60% probability)-- bullish count
My preferred count calling for a
top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two year
sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 3906. We are now in the
development of wave ((4)), of which we expect it to be a big triangle
formation that take about one to two years to complete. The recent sell
down is the first leg of wave ((4)), which will take a form of a-b-c and
reaches the potential target of 2770, as the wave (a) of ((4)). The
index will then continue to develop the (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) triangle
formation.
- Alternate Count (40% probability)--
bearish count
My alternate count calling
for a top at 2502 (on 7/1/2000) as wave ((1)), it then follow by a two
year sell off on wave ((2)) to 1197 (on 28/9/2001). The index had then entered
into an impulsive wave ((3)) that ended at 2666 in May 2006. The index had
then entered into wave ((5)) that ended on 3906 in October'07. We are
now in the downtrend bear market, which will last for a few years!
Although this count remains as the least chance as compare to my
preferred count. If the index breaks below 2776 convincingly on very
high volume, the odd on bear market will significantly increase.
previous | next |